Information for Health Professionals, Screening Guidelines

Metachronous colorectal cancer risk in patients with a moderate family history – Colorectal Disease – Wiley Online Library


Metachronous colorectal cancer risk in patients with a moderate family history – Colorectal Disease

In Press August 2012

Abstract:

Aim:  Life-time risk of a metachronous colorectal cancer (CRC) is 0.6%-3% following sporadic CRC and 15-26% in Lynch syndrome (LS). The life-time incidence of CRC in individuals with moderate familial risk is 8-17%. Risk of metachronous CRC (mCRC) is unknown.

Method:  A retrospective longitudinal study of the Regional Familial CRC Registry was performed. Patients who had at least one CRC were categorised as follows: moderate risk (n=383), LS (n=528) and population risk (n=409). Kaplan-Meier estimate (1-KM) and cumulative incidence function (CI) were used to calculate the risk of mCRC. 1-KM gives the risk for individuals remaining at risk (alive) at a given time point thus is useful for counselling. CI gives the risk for the whole population.

Results:  1-KM and CI demonstrated that the risk of mCRC was significantly higher in moderate risk patients compared with population risk (1-KM p= 0.008, CI p= 0.00097). Both were lower than LS. Moderate risk 1-KM was 2.7%, 6.3% and 23.5% at 5,10 and 20 years. Population risk 1-KM was 1.3%, 3.1% and 7.0% at 5, 10 and 20 years and CI was 0.3%, 0.6% and 2.4%.

Conclusion:  These data indicate that the risk of mCRC is significantly higher in patients with a moderate family history than in those at population risk. This justifies pro-active life-long surveillance.

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About kjmonahan

Service lead for Family History of Bowel Cancer Clinic

Discussion

6 thoughts on “Metachronous colorectal cancer risk in patients with a moderate family history – Colorectal Disease – Wiley Online Library

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Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. Pingback: Lynch Syndrome « The Family History of Bowel Cancer Clinic - September 5, 2012

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